Forecasting the Luxembourg General Election

election Luxembourg
With sophisticated sampling and our election-projection software, the Kantar Public team presented accurate forecasts hours before the official results were announced.

Challenge

In 2018, Radio & Television Luxembourg (RTL) invited our team from Germany to present the results of the parliamentary elections. Challenges included the different numbers of votes in the regions, and a change in the electoral law, which for the first time resulted in a significant number of postal voters.

Approach

Through sophisticated sampling of precincts and adopting our proprietary election-projection software, within tight time constraints, the Kantar Public team was able to present accurate forecasts for the regions hours before the official results were announced.

Insight

More importantly, the team accurately predicted the answer to the most important political question about the majority in the parliament, with 31 from 60 seats for the government. 

Impact

The predictions and our speedy delivery was considered an outstanding result, not only for the government but for the Kantar Public client, RTL.

 

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