Brexit Barometer shows ten-point lead for Conservatives

UK Conservatives 10 points ahead of Labour as Prime Minister May’s deal heads for Parliamentary vote today.
13 March 2019
Luke Taylor

Head of Opinion Polling, Public Division, UK

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Kantar voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).

Kantar’s research also finds that almost seven in ten Britons are aware of ‘The Independent Group’ of former Labour and Conservative MPs. One in five (21%) say it is very or somewhat likely that they would vote for them at the next General Election (if a candidate stood in their constituency). Of people who said they would vote for them, support is seen from those who voted for Labour (35%) and Conservatives (19%).

Public preparations

When asked how likely are they to act ahead of the UK’s departure date from the EU, 21% of those currently in employment (-4 vs Feb 2019) said they are likely to or have looked for a different job, and 1 in 4 people said they have already or will reduce spending on leisure activities or eating out (26% -7 vs Feb 2019). 1 in 5 people said they are likely to or have already stockpiled food or medicine (18%, -2 vs Feb 2019).

How would the people vote if a new referendum was held?

Latest Kantar data (“If a new referendum was held on the UK's membership of the European Union, how would you vote in this referendum?”): Leave 32% (-3 vs Feb 2019), Remain 40% (-3), Would Not Vote 21% (+9), Don’t Know 8% (-2).

Public opinion on the government’s management of the economy and Brexit negotiations

Four in ten think that the UK government’s management of the UK economy is ‘poor’ (40%, -1 vs Feb 2019), while one in five (19%, nc) rate the government as doing a good job. Perceptions of how the government is managing Brexit negotiations are more clear cut, with over 6 in 10 Britons (62%, -4 vs Feb 2019) rating the government’s performance as poor and 23% (nc vs Feb 2019) rating their handling of the negotiations as well.

With less than three weeks to go until the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union, when asked about the impact Brexit will have on jobs, NHS care, schools, living costs and peoples’ local area, 47% (+4 vs Feb 2019) of the British public believe that Brexit will have negative effects with no positive effects. This compares to 15% (-4 vs Feb 2019) who believe it will have positive effects with no negative effects.

When asked if the UK should consider re-joining the EU if the general economic situation turned out to be a lot worse after Brexit, 1 in 3 people said yes (31% -2 vs Feb 2019), 34% said no (+2 vs Feb 2019) and 19% said maybe (-3 vs Feb 2019).

According to March’s Brexit Barometer, the British public’s (sometimes contradictory) priorities for the UK’s exit agreement are:

  • Over two-thirds of the public want the UK to continue collaborating with the EU on science, research and technology initiatives (68%, -10 vs Feb 2019) and (69%, -9 vs Feb 2019, 2019) on security and policing.
  • 63% of the public want British companies to have tariff-free access to the EU markets (-3 vs Feb 2019) while 56% want European companies to have the same tariff-free access to UK markets, including services (nc).
  • Over 6 in 10 Britons (62%, -6 vs Feb 2019) want the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to remain ‘soft’ without any passport control. Whilst 18% said they ‘don’t know’ (-1) 57% ( -7 vs Feb 2019) want the UK to draw up its own rules and regulations, even if they clash with EU rules and regulations and for there to be no further contributions to the EU budget (59%, nc)
  • More than half (56%, -3 vs Feb 2019) of the public want unrestricted rights for UK citizens to live in the EU. Whereas 44% (-3 vs Feb 2019) of Britons want to deny the same unrestricted right for EU citizens to live in the UK.
  • Over half (55%, -3 vs Feb 2019) want the UK to be part of a customs union with the EU to ensure no checks on goods at UK/EU borders, including with Ireland.

Methodological information

The survey data and further details on the methodological approach can be found here.

A total of 1,152 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between 7th and 11th March 2019. Interviews were conducted using the Kantar TNS Research Express Online Omnibus, which uses the Lightspeed access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2017 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Any use of this research must cite Kantar Public as the source.

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