Exploring COVID-19 future scenarios in US healthcare

Preparing for what’s next and acting decisively may be the only way healthcare organisations can survive.
24 June 2020
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McKinnon, Ph.D.

Chief Research Officer, Health Division

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Even as we are living through the tragedy and disruption of the pandemic, attention now turns to "what next?". For healthcare companies currently struggling with how to adapt their current businesses to the "new normal", they are also asking how best to prepare for what the pandemic may have in store in the future. However, many of the facets that drive this future landscape remain unknown, for example:

  • If and when vaccines and therapeutics become available
  • The outcome of the US elections in November
  • Potential coronavirus resurgence as stay-at-home and social distancing orders relax or are ignored
  • The seasonal behaviour of the virus
  • The rate of change in economic destruction 

To aid in preparing for future implications of the pandemic, the Health division of Kantar has developed a strategic planning framework to:

  • Organise plausible future key drivers to form US healthcare landscape scenarios
  • Suggest the behaviour of key stakeholder groups under each scenario
  • Understand the implications for the bio-pharmaceutical industry and recommend actions to prepare for what may happen after this initial COVID-19 outbreak

Future Scenarios

Contemplating the future is complicated. Therefore, the simpler the framework, the better. Kantar suggests that two key dimensions can drive the post-COVID-19 healthcare landscape for patients, providers, payers, and pharma.

  • The behaviour of the virus itself, being either a onetime occurrence or seasonal
  • The government's response, being either comprehensive and effective or fragmented and ineffective

After examining the future across these two dimensions, this white paper outlines what we have learnt and what actions can pharma take now that will make it more prepared for any future outcome. In this white paper, we explore the possibilities of the future scenarios and provide clarity and a foundation for their implications. Complete the form below to gain access.

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