Brexit Barometer: Labour 9 points ahead of Conservatives

Brexit Barometer shows Labour ahead of Conservatives; almost half of public in favour of referendum on any final deal.
Brexit Barometer May 2019 tables

Kantar voting intention polls (9th – 13th May 2019) show Conservative 25% (-7 vs Apr 2019), Labour 34% (-1 vs Apr 2019), Lib Dems 15% (+4), The Brexit Party 10%*, UKIP 4% (-3), SNP 5% (nc), Green 3% (-1), Plaid Cymru 2% (+1), Change UK (1%)*, Other 2%.

*Please note: the figures for “The Brexit Party” and “Change UK” are based on respondents that spontaneously named these parties as an “other” answer.

When asked how likely they would be to vote for a candidate from The Brexit Party if they stood in their constituency, 24% of people said very / somewhat likely (+1), including 49% of those that voted for the Conservatives in 2017. One-in-five (20%) would consider Change UK (-7 vs Apr 2019), including 28% of 2017 Labour voters.

Kantar’s research finds that remaining in the EU/ Revoking Article 50 remains the most popular outcome for the public, with over one in three saying this is their most favourable scenario (36%, +3 vs Apr). Leaving the European Union with ‘No Deal’ is the preferred outcome for two in ten Britons (22%, -2 vs Apr). One in ten (10%, -2 vs Apr) want to Leave the EU with Theresa May’s deal, and 13% want Britain to leave the EU but remain in the Single Market / Customs Union (-2 vs Apr). One in five (19%) are unsure.

Almost half of Britons are in favour of any final deal or agreement reached by the government being put to a public referendum (47%, -4 vs Apr). 29% of Leave voters and two thirds of Remain voters (68%) say they want any agreement to be put to a public vote.1 in 3 Britons (28%, -4 vs Apr) do not want any final deal put to a public vote and one in four say they do not know (25%, +8).

How would the public vote if a new referendum was held?

Leave 33% (-2 vs April 2019), Remain 42% (+1), Would Not Vote 16% (+1), Don’t Know 9% (nc).

Figure 1: If a new referendum was held on the UK’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote in this referendum?

Public priorities for UK’s exit from the European Union:

According to Kantar’s May Brexit Barometer, the British public’s priorities for the UK’s exit agreement are:

  • Seven in ten say they want the UK to continue collaborating with the EU on science, research and technology initiatives (71%, -4 vs Apr 2019) and on security and policing (71%, -5 vs Apr 2019)
  • 63% of the public want British companies to have tariff-free access to the EU markets (-1 vs Apr 2019) while 55% want European companies to have the same tariff-free access to UK markets, including services (+2 vs Apr 2019)
  • 63% of Britons say they want (-4 vs Apr 2019) the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to remain ‘soft’ without any passport control. Whilst 23% said they ‘don’t know’ (+4)
  • 57% (-4 vs Apr 2019) want the UK to draw up its own rules and regulations, even if they clash with EU rules and regulations and for there to be no further contributions to the EU budget (59%, -1 vs Apr 2019).
  • Over half (56%, -6 vs Apr 2019) of the public want unrestricted rights for UK citizens to live in the EU. Whereas 42% (-8 vs Apr 2019) of Britons want to deny the same unrestricted right for EU citizens to live in the UK.
  • Half (51%, -2 vs Apr 2019) want the UK to be part of a customs union with the EU to ensure no checks on goods at UK/EU borders, including with Ireland.

Figure 2: How important, if at all, is it to you personally that each of the following are part of the UK’s EU exit agreement – A customs union with the EU so there are no checks on goods at UK/EU borders (including with Ireland)?

Public opinion on the effects of Brexit and the negotiations

  • Over 7 in 10 Britons (71%, nc vs Apr 2019) rate the government’s management of the Brexit negotiations as poor and 17% (+2 vs Apr 2019) rate their handling of the negotiations as 'well'
  • When asked about the impact Brexit will have on jobs, NHS care, schools, living costs and peoples’ local area, 43% (+2 vs Apr 2019) of the British public believe that Brexit will have negative effects with no positive effects
  • 23% (-2 vs Apr 2019) believe Brexit will have positive effects with no negative effects.

Figure 3: Brexit Confidence Index: Do you think leaving the EU will make things better for you or make things worse?

Methodological information

The survey data and further details on the methodological approach can be found here.

A total of 1,152 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between 9th and 13th of May 2019. Interviews were conducted using the Kantar Research Express Online Omnibus, which uses the Kantar online access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2017 General Election voting patterns, 2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Any use of this research must cite Kantar as the source.